John Oliver Jokes 'Dark' Prediction Markets Are 'Taking Advantage' of Donald Trump's 'Rapidly Declining Verbal Abilities'

John Oliver is taking on one of the internet’s fastest-growing obsessions: prediction markets.

On the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, the host zeroed in on the booming industry, where billions of dollars are now being wagered each week on everything from geopolitics to pop culture, and didn’t mince words about what he sees as the darker side of the trend.

Prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the likelihood of future events, have surged in popularity thanks to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. While these companies position themselves as financial exchanges rather than gambling sites, Oliver questioned that framing.

“The impulse to try to make money betting on war or an unfolding tragedy is really dark,” he said, pointing to examples of users wagering on events like kidnappings, political developments, and global conflicts.

The platforms argue that their markets function as tools for forecasting and even risk management, with users trading against each other rather than “the house.” But Oliver pushed back on that logic, highlighting scenarios where bets have little to do with financial hedging, like predicting what phrases President Donald Trump might say during a speech.

“That is not using a financial instrument to hedge risk,” he said. “It’s taking advantage of a sundowning geriatric’s rapidly declining verbal abilities.”

Oliver warned that presenting odds as a form of insight can give these platforms an outsized influence on how people interpret real-world events.

He also raised concerns about regulation, noting that companies have been able to operate in part by classifying their offerings as “event contracts” rather than traditional bets. That distinction has allowed them to sidestep certain gambling laws, taxes, and age restrictions.

At the same time, political connections have drawn scrutiny. Oliver pointed to ties between the companies and members of the Trump family, arguing that a lack of oversight has allowed the industry to grow largely unchecked.

Even supporters of prediction markets acknowledge their volatility. Christopher Gerlacher, a senior political reporter and industry analyst at PredictionNews, said the platforms can offer a snapshot of public expectations, but only in the moment.

“Prediction markets can show a current state of the race, but the world is still moving outside of them,” Gerlacher said.

“Xavier Becerra had less than a 1% chance to become California’s governor before Eric Swalwell was accused of sexual assault. Now Becerra has a 43% chance of winning the gubernatorial race,” he noted. “Anyone using or reading political markets needs to be mindful of how unexpected events can instantly change a market’s odds.”