CNN Data Guru Predicts 'Nightmare' Is Coming for Donald Trump 

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten predicted a "political nightmare" for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Enten’s analysis highlights a significant collapse in public support and a shifting political map that could jeopardize the GOP’s majorities in both the House and Senate.

“It’s bad,” Enten said on Erin Burnett OutFront on Wednesday, April 15. “It’s like a nightmare for the Republicans. The Democrats just keep gaining and gaining and gaining when it comes to the Senate odds.”

Enten pointed to Trump’s plummeting popularity, noting that his net approval rating has shifted from +2 at the start of his second term to -34, a decline of over 35 points in just over a year.

Enten notes a "whopping" 71-point swing among independent voters on the cost of living against Trump. Additionally, his net approval on the economy among non-college-educated white voters — a key base — has dropped by 41 points since February 2025.

Enten cited betting odds and polling data to show that Democrats now have a 54 percent chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate. He highlighted specific states, like Georgia and North Carolina, moving toward "Lean Democratic," and Ohio shifting to a "Toss-up.”

“Democrats haven’t just gained on Republicans, they actually have the majority chance at 54 percent, and that’s fairly close to a toss-up,” he said. “We all thought that the House was gonna go to the Democrats, but the Senate as well? Oh, boy. My goodness gracious.”

“How about Ohio — a state that Donald Trump won by double digits? From lean GOP to toss-up, with the likely Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, the former senator," he said. “And then Nebraska — Nebraska hasn’t elected a Democratic or a non-Republican since 2006, but went from solid Republican to likely Republican."

“Democrats are gaining in many different seats across the political map, putting new states into play, and that’s the reason why, at this point, they have a 54 percent chance of taking over the United States Senate,” he explained.

Enten described Trump’s polling numbers on gas prices and inflation as a "disaster," comparing them unfavorably to those of Jimmy Carter in 1978.

The analyst suggests these "horrible" numbers are driven by several ongoing challenges in Trump's second term, including high inflation and tariffs, the war in Iran, and abysmal consumer sentiment.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index reached a historic low of 11 percent in early April.

Enten concluded his analysis by warning that if these trends continue, Republicans can expect to lose their congressional majorities, stating, "Wave 'Adios, amigos,' goodbye to their House majority.”

“His approval rating at the beginning of his second term was +2 points — down he goes, into the smithereens, now at -34 points on his net popularity rating," Enten added. “That’s an over 35-point shift in only about a year, plus a few months. No wonder all these states are in play.”