The 2028 Race Is On: VP J.D. Vance Leads Nikki Haley in New Hampshire

It’s still early, but the 2028 presidential race is already taking shape — and J.D. Vance appears to be the frontrunner.

Even though the next campaign cycle is still years away, new polling shows the vice president emerging as the clear GOP favorite. Recent surveys suggest Vance is already separating himself from the rest of the field.

In New Hampshire, Vance dominates the pack with 51 percent support. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley trails far behind at 9 percent, while Tulsi Gabbard, the eighth director of national intelligence, follows closely with 8 percent.

“He is the first in the nation running 42 points ahead,” CNN analyst Harry Enten reported.

CNN also released prediction market odds titled “Top Chances to be 2028 GOP Press Nominee,” where Vance leads with a 48 percent chance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits a distant second at 12 percent.

“J.D. Vance is like Mario Andretti & the rest of the GOP is going around in go karts when it comes to 2028,” Enten suggested.

Additional polling from Emerson College backs up that momentum. The survey showed Vance pulling in 46 percent support nationwide, while Rubio followed with 12 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) landed at 9 percent.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, received 5 percent. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and former U.N. Ambassador Haley each registered 2 percent.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement that Vance has “solidified” his position as the front-runner, pointing out that he earned support from 52 percent of male Republican voters and voters over the age of 60.

Months earlier, Vance hinted that a 2028 run was on his radar during a sit-down with Sean Hannity on Fox News in November.

“Two days after the midterms, we get into a cycle, meaning 2028. Have you thought at all – I mean, I would think it has to go through your head. You’re in the Oval Office every day,” Hannity asked. “Thinking about it at all?”

Vance didn’t dodge the question and made it clear he plans to discuss the idea directly with former President Donald Trump.

“So we’re going to win the midterms, we’re going to do everything that we can to win the midterms, and then after that, I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it,” he said.

The vice president emphasized that keeping Republicans in control of Congress remains his immediate priority.

“I really want us to win the midterms because, if the Democrats get in power, they’re gonna try to screw up a lot of the great things the president of the United States has done over the past ten months. Again, trees that have been planted, some of which won’t even bear fruit for a few years,” he suggested.

Meanwhile, conservative activist Erika Kirk has already pledged her support for Vance’s future run.

“We are going to get my husband’s friend J.D. Vance elected for ’48 [sic] in the most resounding way possible," she said.

While she misstated the year, the message was widely understood to reference the 2028 election — a race she has previously said Turning Point USA is already gearing up for.

The 37-year-old mother-of-two also made it clear her political efforts won’t stop at the White House. She vowed to push for strong Republican showings in the 2026 midterms and confirmed that TPUSA plans to return to college campuses next year.