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A Second Act? Donald Trump Likely to Win 2024 Presidential Race, Claims Historian

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Source: mega

May 13 2023, Published 6:00 p.m. ET

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Will Donald Trump win in 2024? According to Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson, the Republican political will likely have his second term.

Ferguson claimed that the former reality TV star is a very strong candidate to win the upcoming presidential election.

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"A second Trump act is not just possible. It's fast becoming my base case," Ferguson penned in a recent op-ed.

The expert explained that although Trump's enemies are on a "campaign of lawfare" against the ex-president, it will not stop him from winning the White House back.

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He added, "The prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived."

The 76-year-old recently made headlines when he was found liable for the sexual abuse of former advice columnist E. Jean Carroll on May 9. The writer alleged that the powerful businessman sexually assaulted her in the '90s in a department store dressing room.

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Ferguson discussed the case noting that Carrol couldn't remember "if the alleged assault happened in 1995 or 1996."

"Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination," he added, claiming that the media attention from the case helped Trump's campaign.

Ferguson then stated the former commander-in-chief is the "clear frontrunner" for the Republican nomination. A survey Fox News released in April showed that Ferguson was right, with Trump holding a 53 percent lead while beating suspected candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 32 points.

The historian then pivoted to assess DeSantis' likelihood of winning, alleging, "[The] Republican primary process favors candidates with early leads because most states award delegates on a 'winner takes all' or 'winner takes most' basis."

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He noted that the "winner takes most" mentality is a "lesson of history" that will turn out in Trump’s favor.

"The Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election," he continued.

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The annalist concluded by adding that the recession will help the father-of-five’s chances of winning the race.

"[It] does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover’s presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice," Ferguson wrote.

Fox News reported on Ferguson's comments.

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